Paris Agreement Ocean Acidification

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Meinshausen, M., Raper, C.B. – Wigley, T.M. L. Emulsify atmospheric and carbon cycle models coupled with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model Description and Calibration. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 1417-1456 (2011). Mollica, N. R.

et al. Ocean acidification affects coral growth by reducing skeletal density. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. United States 115, 1754-1759 (2017). Excess heat and CO2 alters the physics, chemistry and ecology of the oceans and harms valuable ecosystem services such as fishing, coastal tourism and coastal protection. In line with previous studies35,36, SSP1-2.6 emissions have been imposed, atmospheric CO (){2}) concentrations are expected to increase to 470 ppmv (Figure 2a), while the average global temperature intensity for the SSP1-2.6 simulation is expected to be 1.8C (Figure 2b). As a result, global average pH values for the oceans in the mid-21st century show a marked decrease and exceed the values of 0.17 units (fig. 2c) for the SSP1-2.6 simulation. Compared to SSP1-2.6 scenarios across the simulation, the EARLY scenario results in a much lower atmospheric CO level {2} with a maximum of about 440 ppm, resulting in global warming of nearly 1.5oC and a maximum pH decrease of about 0.15 units, with anomalies decreasing successively after 2050 (see Figure 2a-c). The EARLY scenario can be compared to other very low emission scenarios, which are lower than SSP1-2.6 in the literature.

Rockstrom et al.37 have proposed a scenario of halving CO emissions {2} every ten years from 2020, the CDR uses very little to achieve net zero CO emissions by the middle {2} of the century. The lowest scenarios of the PNP, which limit the imposition of radiation to 1.9 Wm by the end of the century, including an SSP1-1.9 scenario (see figure 3) by the IMAGE model, also reach net zero CO emissions (“{2}”) by mid-century38. These scenarios, as well as other similar scenarios, noted in the IPCC`s latest special report on 1.5 () C (Chapter 2, Rogelj et al., SR1.5)5, which found that, on average, about two-thirds of the faster phase of CO emissions {2} compared to the corresponding 2 scenarios (“circ”) C were due to a greater reduction in emissions and only one-third following the earlier introduction of CDR. therefore. , not all of the acceleration of co-{2} output relative to SSP1-2.6 should come from additional CDRs, as predicted in the “EARLY” scenario. In any case, the late scenario is not likely to effectively mitigate climate change, particularly during the critical time interval between 2025 and 2100.

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Paris Agreement Ocean Acidification

by Loretta Prieto time to read: 2 min
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